I have been on LiveJournal for about three years.
My friends list is about 100 strong.
In three years, I have known about 3 friends to have died.
Two from heart attacks, one from AIDs related cancer. None of them were over 50.
Now I remember in my stats class, we were told, in a group of 30, chances are one person will share their birthday with another member of the group.
Statistically speaking, having three friends die under age 50, is that significant? Average? It kind of freaks me out in a way.
Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks.
March 5 2006, 19:09:12 UTC 6 years ago
I have a couple of thoughts
Another thing to consider is similarities in your choice of friends. Perhaps everyone geographically lives in the same type of areas with things like superfund sites or pollution. Also most of us make friends that share the same interests we do. Not to sound like a complete ass, but maybe you and your friends share interests that aren't very healthy.In general though, the older we get, the more we watch people around us die. When I was younger it wasn't common, but in the last 10 years I've had a few friends die too. My dad (58) just told me the other day how he is really starting to feel discouraged because so many people he's known have died. I'm thinking there probably is a positive correlation between age and the number of deaths one experiences. At any rate, I certainly don't think you are alone.
March 6 2006, 00:52:29 UTC 6 years ago
March 6 2006, 01:48:02 UTC 6 years ago
The thing is, people get a bit mixed up over how 'chance' works. It's human nature.
You're noticed something that's happened to 3 out of a 100 people. Even ignoring things like it's not a random choice, it's 100 of the type of people you befriended, then even so, the chances of someone under 50 dying from aids might be low, for your group of people. The chances of peole under 50 dying from heart disease might also be low. So you're thinking, oh wow is somehting going on. Because you HAVE a group which has 3 deaths from these diseases, and you're working backwards.
Let me put it another way. There are MANY things which might have a 1 in 100 chance of happening. Perhaps some illnesses, things which typically happen to people. This is a national statistical average. HOWEVER if you examine your group, you might find that none of these things has happened to them.
In other words, things like "1 in a 100" does not mean EVERY group of 100 people will have 1. Depending on other factors (the 'spread' of the statistical variations ... or for statisticians the variance of the standard deviation) there may be MANY groups of 100 people with zero, and SEVERAL groups of 100 people who have 4 or 5 or 10 ... way above the overall average.
For interest, let me put it another way. I heard this wonderful analogy on a program about ID.
Suppose I deal out a bridge hand. In case you don't play bridge, or some similar game, you take 52 cards, shuffle, then deal out four hands (13 in each). Now, you might look at the hands, and say, WOW, what are the chances of dealing out exactly these hands in exactly this order? And it's INCREDIBLY small.
So working backwards, it's easy to think, wow this is weird.
However, of course you have SOME hand, because you've dealt it out. It's a CERTAINTY you'll get SOME random distribution of cards.
(Of course, in real life, you don't just look at the order it's being dealt out, you get your 13 cards, rearrange, and then work out how good it is. And there are fewer very good hands, than average hands. So if you get the BEST POSSIBLE HAND, then this is rare.
However, play long enough, and you will get the occasional great hand.)
March 6 2006, 01:49:26 UTC 6 years ago
March 13 2006, 06:44:48 UTC 6 years ago
a possibility also coming to mind is a generational issue: weblogs aren't particularly common among the over-50 group because they're a bit of a generational thing, but folks above 50 that adapt their lives to include weblogs may be more likely to have better life-survival skills and as such may be better at taking care of their health. (totally theorizing here.)
i've had a number of lj friends passing in and out of my journal and the count has gone over a hundred a few times, but it's currently at 75. i've seen one known death (20-something-year old that overdosed) and have seen a couple of journals be deleted by people who were not in great mental health conditions, one of whom i suspect may have overdosed as well, although more likely intentionally than the other, as well as one journal Ended because the user was returning to the cultish religious group she grew up in and as such could no longer communicate with the Outside World, which is kinda like a death although also totally different.